A_Ten-Year_Earthquake_Occurrence_Model_for_Italy

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A_Ten-Year_Earthquake_Occurrence_Model_for_Italy

PostPosted by Scotti Oona » 30 Aug 2016, 23:57

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235352190_A_Ten-Year_Earthquake_Occurrence_Model_for_Italy

Central ApenninesThis Apennine range (area 3 in Figs. 8 and 10) shows agenerally higherEO probability compared to the adjacentperi-Tyrrhenian and peri-Adriatic areas. All models consis-tently define the axial belt of the central Apennines (south ofColfiorito to L’Aquila) as one of the most hazardous regionsin Italy. This derives from both the frequent ML5–6 earth-quakes that have occurred in the last few decades and fromsome large (ML∼ 6:5–7) infrequent events (1703, 1915).Notably, this region also contains the best active faults map-ping in Italy, leading to the development of some localhazard models (e.g., Pace et al., 2006; Akinci et al., 2010 )that use more geological information with respect to the na-tional models. According to some time-dependent models,after th e L’Aquila earthquake of 2009, the probabilities ofevents in adjacent regions have increased. This includesthe area called “reatino” (from Rieti, Latium) where themicroseismicity rate has increased significantly after theL’Aquila event.In the southern part of the central Apennines, we note aregion with a high probability of occurrence (southernLatium, Abruzzo, and Molise), where a long seismic swarmstarted after the L’Aquila earthquake, and some major activefaults are known. These faults have been silent for manycenturies, at least since the large 1349 earthquake
Scotti Oona
 
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